Spatial Analysis of Flood Risk Projections in Aceh Province Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Climate Models and GIS

Nengah Bennuwardana; Sukendra Martha; Yosef Prihanto; Dangan Waluyo; Firmansyah Firmansyah; Bachtiar Rifai

doi:10.55927/fjas.v4i8.317

Authors

Nengah Bennuwardana Universitas Pertahanan Republik Indonesia
Sukendra Martha Universitas Pertahanan Republik Indonesia
Yosef Prihanto Universitas Pertahanan Republik Indonesia
Dangan Waluyo Universitas Pertahanan Republik Indonesia
Firmansyah Firmansyah Universitas Pertahanan Republik Indonesia
Bachtiar Rifai Universitas Pertahanan Republik Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55927/fjas.v4i8.317

Keywords:

Climate Change Model Scenarios, Flood Projections, CMIP6, SIG

Abstract

This study projects the potential for flooding using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenario through a two-scenario approach, namely SSP2-4.5 (emission stabilization) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions). This study compares the baseline period of 1991-2010 to the near-future projection of 2031-2050 using the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate projection dataset of the TaiESM1 model, geospatial information consisting of Indonesian topographic data, land cover, soil type, the National digital elevation model (DEMNAS), and historical data of flood events for the period 2008-2024. The research method involves spatial analysis with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), weighting scores, interpolation, and validation against historical floods. The results of the study show that in 2031-2050, the area affected by flooding based on the climate change model scenario SSP2-4.5 (emission stabilization) for the vulnerable category was 13,759,858 km2 and the very vulnerable category was 2,549,715 km2.

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