Predictive Analysis of Financial Distress Using the Altman Z-Score Method on Companies in the Trade, Service & Investment Sector Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2019-2023

Yuliani Nurhayati; Esi Fitriani Komara

doi:10.55927/fjas.v4i8.299

Authors

Yuliani Nurhayati Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani
Esi Fitriani Komara Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55927/fjas.v4i8.299

Keywords:

Financial Distress, Altman Z-Score, Indonesia Stock Exchange, TSI Sector

Abstract

Trade, services, and investment are the main pillars that are integrated in driving global economic growth. This study aims to analyze the “ability of the Altman Z-Score model to predict financial distress in companies in the Trade, Service & Investment (TSI) sector on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 2019–2023.” The method used is a quantitative approach with binary logistic regression analysis of the financial statements of 15 companies selected purposively. The results indicate that the Altman Z-Score can predict financial distress, although its accuracy is limited in complex market conditions. These findings imply the need for regular financial evaluations and the development of more adaptive predictive models to address the dynamic financial conditions of companies. Additionally, this study is expected to provide practical benefits for investors, creditors, and company management in anticipating bankruptcy risks while developing sustainable financial strategies.

References

Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589–609. https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1540-6261.1968.TB00843.X.

Altman, E. I., & Hotchkiss, E. (1993). Predict And Avoid Bankruptcy, Analyze and invest in distressed debt third edition corporate financial distress and bankruptcy.

Andhiny, Sitorus, E. T., & Napitupulu, R. D. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Financial Distress Perusahaan Jasa Dengan Metode Altman Z-Score (Studi Empiris Pada Perusahaan Perhotelan, Restoran, Dan Pariwisata Yang Terdaptar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2018-2021). Jurnal Manajemen, Akuntansi Dan Ekonomi.

Brigham, Eugen., & Houston, Joel. (2015). Fundamentals of Financial Management.

Cecilia, S., Rambe, S., & Torong, M. Z. B. (2015). Analisis Pengaruh Corporate Social Responsibility, Profitabilitas dan Ukuran Perusahaan Terhadap Nilai Perusahaan pada Perusahaan Perkebunan yang Go Public di Indonesia, Malaysia, dan Singapura. Simposium Nasional Akuntansi XVIII.

Ellen. (2013). Penerapan Good Corporate Governance, Dampaknya Terhadap Prediksi Financial Distress Pada Sektor Aneka Industri Dan Barang Konsumsi. Business Accounting Review, 1(2), 1–13.

Fahmi, I. (2012). Analisis Kinerja Keuangan. Alfabeta.

Fajarsari, H., & Martini. (2022). Analisis Financial Distress dengan Perhitungan Model Altman (Z-Score) pada Perusahaan Sub Sektor Hotel, Restoran dan Pariwisata selama Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal ILMAN (Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen), 10(2), 49–57. https://doi.org/10.35126/ILMAN.V10I2.23.

GhorbanTanhaei, H., Boozary, P., Sheykhan, S., Rabiee, M., Rahmani, F., & Hosseini, I. (2024). Predictive analytics in customer behavior: Anticipating trends and preferences. Results in Control and Optimization, 17.

Hariyanto. (2024). Analisis Altman Z-Score Modification Dalam Memprediksi Financial Distress Perusahaan Publik Sub Sektor Transportasi Yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesi (BEI). Land Journal, 5(2), 215–222.

Hennglyny, Pio, R. J., & Mangindaan, J. V. (2024). Analisis Financial Distress Dengan Model Altman Z-Score pada Perusahaan Sektor Pariwisata yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2020-2022. Productivity, 5(3), 899–904. https://doi.org/10.35797/EJP.V5I3.54585.

Junaedy. (2023). Insolvency Forecasting using model Altman Z-Score and Springate Score Analysis. Advances in Management & Financial Reporting, 1(2), 95–106. https://doi.org/10.60079/AMFR.V1I2.113.

Kasmir. (2014). Analisis Laporan Keuangan, cetakan ke-7. PT Rajagrafindo Persada.

Khasanah, M. N., & Ramli, R. (2024). Analisis Prediksi Financial Distress Menggunakan Model Altman Z-Scorepada Perusahaan Ritel Yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2018-2022. Oikos: Jurnal Kajian Pendidikan Ekonomi Dan Ilmu Ekonomi, 09, 145–155.

Kristanti, F. T. (2019). Analisis Survival Untuk Financial Distress di Indonesia. Intelegensia Media.

Mastuti, F., Saifi, M., & Azizah, D. F. (2013). Altman Z-score Sebagai Salah Satu Metode Dalam Menganalisis Estimasi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan (Studi Pada Perusahaan Plastik Dan Kemasan Yang Terdaftar (Listing) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode Tahun 2010 Sampai Dengan 2012). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 6(1), 77328.

Mas’ud, I., & Srengga, R. M. (2015). Analisis Rasio Keuangan Untuk Memprediksi Kondisi Financial Distress Perusahaan Manufaktur Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Jember, 10(2), 139–154. https://doi.org/10.19184/JAUJ.V10I2.1255.

Nurfadillah, P. S., & Yulianti, E. (2024). Accuracy Analysis of the Financial Distress Prediction Model Using Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski And Grover in the Oil, Gasand Geothermal Mining Subsectors Listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (BEI). Sean Institute, 13, 2202–2215.

Nurmutia, E. (2024). Ini Biang Kerok Sejumlah Emiten di Indonesia Terlihat Rapuh - Page 4 - Saham Liputan6.com.

Nurwahida, R. P., & Margasari, N. (2024). Analisis Financial Distress pada Perusahaan Sektor Perdagangan, Jasa dan Investasi yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. BUDGETING: Journal of Business, Management and Accounting, 5(2), 1332–1343. https://doi.org/10.31539/budgeting.v5i2.9830.

Platt, H. D., & Platt, M. B. (2002). Predicting corporate financial distress: Reflections on choice-based sample bias. Journal of Economics and Finance, 26(2), 184–199. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02755985.

Rahmawati, S., & Santoso, B. (2025). Analisis Financial Distress Menggunakan Metode Altman Z-Score Dan Zmijewski Pada Perusahaan Property Dan Real Estate Yang Terdaftar Di Bei. Jurnal Nusa Akuntansi, 2(1), 370–391. https://doi.org/10.62237/JNA.V2I1.203.

Ratna, I., & Marwati, M. (2018). Analisis Faktor- Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Kondisi Financial Distress Pada Perusahaan Yang Delisting Dari Jakarta Islamic Index Tahun 2012-2016. Jurnal Tabarru’: Islamic Banking and Finance, 1(1), 51–62. https://doi.org/10.25299/JTB.2018.VOL1(1).2044.

Salim, M. N., & Ismudjoko, D. (2021). An Analysis of Financial Distress Accuracy Models in Indonesia Coal Mining Industry: An Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, Ohlson and Grover Approaches. Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting Studies, 3(2), 01–12. https://doi.org/10.32996/JEFAS.2021.3.2.1.

Sutrisno. (2017). Manajemen Keuangan: Teori Konsep dan Aplikasi.

Tiono, K. B., & Colline, F. (2020). Analisis Penggunaan Model Altman Z-Score, Model Springate, Model Grover, Dan Model Zmijewski Sebagai Prediktor Kebangkrutan. Jurnal Akuntansi.

Toly, A. A., Permatasari, R., & Wiranata, E. (2020). The Effect of Financial Ratio (Altman Z-Score) on Financial Distress Prediction in Manufacturing Sector in Indonesia 2016-2018. Atlantis Press, 47–53.

Yunisa, R., & Santi, F. (2023). Analysis Financial Distress Potential in Asean Industrial Companies Using Altman Z-Score and Springate Methods. East Asian Journal of Multidisciplinary research, 2(12), 4993–5008. https://doi.org/10.55927/EAJMR.V2I12.6902