The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Price Stability of Imported Commodities in Indonesia

Yehezkiel William Rassi; Deva Olivia; Fathiyya Humairoh; Maria Melisa Sutomo; Nazwa Silva Fauziah

doi:10.55927/fjas.v4i6.189

Authors

Yehezkiel William Rassi STIE Indonesia Banking School
Deva Olivia STIE Indonesia Banking School
Fathiyya Humairoh STIE Indonesia Banking School
Maria Melisa Sutomo STIE Indonesia Banking School
Nazwa Silva Fauziah STIE Indonesia Banking School

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55927/fjas.v4i6.189

Keywords:

CPM, Imports, United States Dollar

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the stability of imported commodity prices in Indonesia, by focusing on the dynamics of the relationship between the rupiah exchange rate and the price of imported commodities in a certain period. This study uses a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression analysis methods to see the causal relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and imported commodity prices. The secondary data used includes the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar and the prices of several strategic imported commodities such as food, energy, and other consumer goods, collected from official sources such as Bank Indonesia and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The results show that exchange rate fluctuations have a significant influence on changes in imported commodity prices, where depreciation of the rupiah exchange rate tends to cause an increase in the price of imported commodities, while appreciation of the exchange rate tends to reduce the price of these commodities.

References

Aizenman, J., & Hutchison, M. M. (2012). Exchange rate policies and inflation targeting in emerging markets. IMF Economic Review, 60(4), 667–697. https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2012.22.

Amin, M. (2022). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar terhadap Harga Komoditas Impor di Indonesia.Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan, 15(1), 25–34.

Bank Indonesia. (2023). Laporan perekonomian Indonesia 2023. Jakarta: Bank Indonesia. https://www.bi.go.id.

Bank Indonesia. (2023). Statistik Nilai Tukar Rupiah. https://www.bi.go.id.

Blanchard, O., & Johnson, D. R. (2017). Macroeconomics (7th ed.). Pearson.

Burstein, A., & Gopinath, G. (2014). International prices and exchange rates. In G. Gopinath, E. Helpman, & K. Rogoff (Eds.), Handbook of International Economics (Vol. 4, pp. 391–451). Elsevier.

Hartono, R., & Yuliani, S. (2023). Analisis Transmisi Kurs terhadap Harga Domestik. Jurnal Moneter Indonesia, 19(1), 55–66.

Frankel, J. A. (1999). No single currency regime is right for all countries or at all times. Essays in International Finance, 215, 1–13. Princeton University.

Fitriani, L., & Nugroho, B. (2020). Hubungan Antara Kurs Rupiah dan Harga Impor Komoditas Strategis. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia, 17(1), 75–86.

International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2021). Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP.

Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M. J. (2018). International economics: Theory and policy (11th ed.). Pearson.

Kurniawati, D. (2021). Implikasi Kurs terhadap Ketahanan Pangan Nasional. Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, 16(3), 111–123.

Mundell, R. A. (1963). Capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 29(4), 475–485. https://doi.org/10.2307/139336.

Mulyadi, H. (2023). Analisis Hedging oleh Perusahaan Ekspor-Impor di Indonesia. Jurnal Manajemen Keuangan dan Perdagangan, 17(1), 73–85.

Pramudya, A. (2021). Nilai Tukar dan Implikasinya terhadap Stabilitas Harga. Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi Makro, 11(3), 145–158.

Sugema, I., & Restiana, N. (2010). Exchange rate pass-through into inflation in Indonesia. Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business, 25(1), 55–70. https://doi.org/10.22146/jieb.6297.

Suryani, T., & Rahardjo, H. (2020). Dampak Fluktuasi Kurs terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan, 18(2), 134–147.

Syafitri, D. (2019). Pengaruh Depresiasi Rupiah terhadap Inflasi Impor. Jurnal Ekonomi Modernisasi, 15(2), 91–103.

World Bank. (2022). Indonesia Economic Indicators. https://data.worldbank.org/country/indonesia.

Yilmazkuday, H. (2017). Exchange rate pass-through to import prices: Sectoral evidence from developing countries. Review of Development Economics, 21(2), 580–597. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12268.